Monday, November 1, 2010

Massachusetts and National Election Predictions

Starting with The House I am predicting a historic night for the Republicans. I am calling for a gain of 75 seats and that could go higher. Notable Democratic losers will be led by Barney Frank in the #MA04th District. John Dennis on a moderate Libertarian platform is going to surprise the Country on Tuesday and a flat out win is possible.  To benchmark my 75 seat prediction I compare to the Following: Dick Morris 73, Fred Barnes 60, Real Clear Politics 67, Cook 50+, and Rasmussen 55.

On the Senate side I am predicting a 50 Seat Republican end of day control. I see the Dems holding CT with Blumenthal (what a weak candidate) and Delaware with Coons (What a socialist candidate). I see Joe Miller in AK holding on. John Boozeman and Ron Johnson having impressive wins in Arkansas and Wisconson sending lefty Lincoln and Feingold home. Ken Buck, Mark Kirk, Sharon Angle, Pat Toomey will win close races in CO, IL, NV and PA.  In a race to control Senate Control Boxer and Fiorina will be in a toss up to the wee hours here on the East Coast.

Locally here in Ma I am predicting a 4-5 seat Republican win total on the up for grabs 10 seats. Jeff Perry in #MA10 and Sean Bielat in #Ma04 over Barney Frank the big wins for the GOP.  I see Tom Wesley #MA02, Bill Hudak #MA06, Marty Lamb #MA03, and Jon Golnick #MA05  all in very competitive races with 2 to 3 of them winning with Golnick's chances the highest.  In the Governors race look for a 2-3 point Charlie Baker win, the pollsters are wet and not in touch with the feel in the street, see Scott Brown election.
I also See Jim Mckenna the Republican write in candidate bouncing Martha Coakley for her second historic loss in the same calendar year.

For those interested in a true bell weather race to watch its the #MA18 Worcester State seat. You have Dem 6 term incumbent from the Beacon Hill Jen Callahan corruptocrat society elite versus young upstart Republican Ryan #Fattman. Ryan is very energetic and will GOTV and is much more media savy. See his creative Video/Ad here -

 This vote will be a classic Anti Obama/Deval Patrick election. If Fattman wins look for similar results all across the country pushing my 75 house seat prediction even higher. I see the continued emergence of the Teaparty movement pushing the GOP to a more conservative right leaning platform. In the process the far left Obama regime is losing Independent voters at a clip of 75/25 to the GOP and flat out leaking 10% plus moderate democrats not onboard with Obamacare, Cap Trade, Amnesty and growing soft tyranny and the socialistic transformation of America.