Friday, June 17, 2011

Romney or Bachmann? My take

I am undecided, leaning to Mitt Romney but supporting both Romney and Bachmann keeping options open with both candidates.  Bachmann probably reflects the candidate that aligns with my personal views more so and I have been to multiple Michele Bachmann events as well as a Romney event in New Hampshire. I will vote for one of the two in the Primary. I will talk more on both candidates and the why’s below.

Case for Romney

My case for Romney is sheer electability. He appeals to all spectrums of GOP and independent voters as evidenced by his recent front runner status in National polls as well as leading GOP polling in early states of NH, South Carolina, Iowa, Nevada and Florida. I think Romney’s skill set in the private sector working at VC Bain Capital as well as his turn around with the Olympics is exactly the skill set we need in WH to revive economy and reverse Obama’s failed policies. Romney also has an impressive record as Governor of Massachusetts turning a $3B deficit into a $2B surplus upon leaving in 2006.  He balance budgets and has skill set to tackle the looming 14.5 Trillion in National debt and $1.5 Trillion annual budget deficits Obama is running today. Romney also lowered unemployment from near 6% to 4.5% in his term as Governor. My final takeaway is Romney is probably our best bet to defeat Obama and I will settle on an issue or two to beat Obama and by the way find me a pure, perfect candidate in this lot.

Flip-Flop concerns

I am not as concerned on the flip-flops as most. I am very tea party with fiscal conservative focus and priority. I am personally Pro life and Conservative yet retrain some libertarian leanings and it’s not a top focus/priority to me. It is also a very divisive topic not likely to be overturned in Courts anytime soon. On his abortion flip flop he moved to the right position just as Ronald Reagan, George Bush did. My biggest reservation is the individual mandate in Romneycare. But I am satisfied that Romney will repeal as stated Obamacare day one as promised. I also see Obamacare much more a Gov’t takeover, $2Trillion Bill than the Heritage written Romneycare Bill that retains  private insurance options w less than 1% cost to budget bottom line. We will likely have House and Senate and there is remote to no chance he flip flops on Obamacare repeal he has promised.  Ironically Scott Brown #41 who voted for Romney care was a tea party hero and raised $15M on a repeal Obamacare platform the same as Romney has. The stakes are just as high now to repeal in 2012 or likely its here forever. Think of Obama winning and holding veto power for 4 more years. Election is Obama and Obamacare or Romney and repeal Obamacare. My money is on the latter and the anti-Obama vote.


On electability I have seen Pawlenty in person and track polling to a fault daily and see zero traction in his campaign.  His recent backdown on going after Romney at debate may be final nail in his coffin. I don’t see Newt, Ron Paul, Herman Cain or Rick Santorum as having any shot to win Primary. Romney is the clear electability choice in my mind. He is very well funded, has great organization skills and has an experienced campaign team in place. He not only appeals to the Independent swing vote he appeals to what I call the casual voter. That is the voter that maybe turns on 6:30 news and catches sound bites here and there. It’s also the voter who is not on twitter living politics 24/7 as many of us do. I refer to this voter block as the silent majority.  I think sometimes on twitter and social networks we surround ourselves with people that all think like us and we can miss other viewpoints and distort differing big picture voter realities. Romney is articulate and polls very well with women and in the critical swing states which can cause Obama major problems next November.

My other electability sleeper option is believe it or not Michele Bachmann. I see a path for her beating back Santorum, Cain for the Conservative vote and getting Sarah Palin’s endorsement. I was leaning to voting for Palin last year but see her not running and too polarizing and unelectable today for a myriad of reasons. With Bachmann’s hire of Ed Rollins I see the finishing touches on a solid campaign run to date. She is a great fundraiser, has worked tirelessly in all the early states since February. She is an Attorney, strong with tea party support and can work with so called establishment types which will be an asset for her expanding her voter base past traditional Social Conservative roots. She could win Iowa and might emerge as the anti-Romney candidate.  Bachmann also demonstrated her charm, sharp and precise communicative skills and feisty character in the recent Presidential debate.  Huntsman is trying to be propped up by GOP and media and no one is buying any of that. Mitch Daniels already turned down that gig and most all of the establishment fundraisers are starting to move to Romney.  Bachmann and Pawlenty will have to make a play there to stay with Romney throughout the primary as he is amassing a massive fundraising network not to mention raising $10.5M in one day recently. Rick Perry may be a late entrant in the race and worthy of watching closer.

Palin/Bachman ?

I don’t see Palin running but if she did I suspect she would beat out Bachmann though the longer Palin stays out the more voters see Michele Bachmann  and that is a dicy proposition for Sarah. I think @TeamBachmann and Ed Rollins kind of are pointing a gun at Palin’s head right now. They might not be able to beat her but if they dig in and can build on her current 10%+ voting base she can kick the chair out on Palin’s chances and split votes allowing Romney to win the Primary.  In many ways they need each other. I think Ed Rollins calling Palin a “non serious candidate” recently was as much an attempt to flush a Palin decision out and soon as anything else. If not Bachmann is going all out in to Sarah’s detriment if that decision has not already been made. So I do believe a strong Bachmann campaign may give Palin some pause and better yet, be her bail out and the candidate she can endorse. She is going to be under intense pressure to run from her fan base and may need a Bachmann that she can rally around, support as the Anti-Romney choice if she opts out on running. 

Bottom line is I am still undecided and will move towards the candidate that best gives us a chance to beat Obama in 2012.  I’m leaning Mitt Romney today but can see a legitimate path for Michele Bachmann as well.