First I want to update where we are today and update polling in the Massachusetts Senate Race. First we had a 1-9-2010 Public Policy Polling survey calling it a tossup with Scott Brown up 48-47 over Martha Coakley. The Key takeaway was Brown up 70-16 rating versus Coakley with Independents.Then on 1-12-2010 Rassmussen updated their polling in MA has the race tightening up this week with Coakley up 49-47. That's 7 points closer than a week ago. To put that in perspective Scott Brown was down 30 points a month ago. Also Rasmussen had Scott Brown up 71-23 with Independents.
Today we get some updating polling data from Weekly standard. Based on Browns stunning knockout debate win on TV, Coakley running a poor campaign Brown is still surging. The democrats are in panic mode with Coakley campaigning DC and SEIU and interest groups buying last second negative ads. And Scott Brown raised $1.4 Million from 17,000 contributers mostly small individual donations with a recent money bomb.
The updated Internal polls the weekly Standard reported today are probably very accurate based on trendings. Internal Democratic polls have the race close, with a small and fading Coakley lead. Their actions this week actually confirm that indeed is the case. One Republican and One Independent group now actually have Scott Brown up by a few points. This is earth shattering news and reflects that Scott Brown is running a great campaign and Martha Coakley is pulling a proverbial Bill Buckner with hers.
On WTKK Today Jay Severin a veteran 20+ year political advisor who ran campaigns had some interesting thoughts. He for a week now has outlined how Martha Coakley was a poor candidate and the potential was there for her to lose this race if Scott Brown hit on a bunch of perfect storm issues. He also commented that based on his experience, recent polls and trends led him to cautiously state Scott Brown was likely up today in this race.
Back to why I believe Scott Brown will win this race next week. I wrote an article a month ago stating he would win the race and it would be because he was on the right side on the issues and that is still true. But a new dynamic is now in play. Scott Brown connects with the average person in Massachusetts more than Martha Coakley. It's almost that simple. Look at Scott Brown's endorsements. Curt Schilling, Lenny Clark, Doug Flutie, WEEI Sports personalities, Steve Sweeney, State and Local police, various newspapers, Veterans, Small Business Groups, John McCain, Tim Pawlenty, Rudy Giuliani on and on. Scott Brown is going to win the PEOPLE'S Seat because he relates to the people in Massachusetts more than Martha Coakly. Sometimes it's just simple math.
With all due respect, it's not the Kennedy's seat, it's not the democrats seat, it's the PEOPLE'S Seat